Why defeat is good for Najib

Barisan Nasional had many things going for it in the run-up to the by-elections in Bukit Selambau and Bukit Gantang.

Firstly, all the by-elections were held on the same day (including the one in Batang Ai). This is an advantage to BN because it has more resources than Pakatan Rakyat, which was stretched thin during the campaign period.

Secondly, the elections were held a week after the Umno General Assembly, which ushered in a new party president. Spirits were high, with former Prime Minister Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad even lending his hand to BN’s campaign.

Thirdly, the polls came right after Datuk Seri Najib Razak became prime minister and declared the immediate release of 13 ISA detainees as well as the lifting of a ban on two opposition newspapers.

Yet, BN lost in these two key by-elections in the peninsula. There are many things Najib can learn from these defeats, chief of which is that the Malay votes are now truly split and they’ve really lost the non-Malay votes.

For the longest time, Umno could count on being seen as the defender of the Malay race and thus the only logical party for Malays to vote for. Not anymore. PKR and PAS, together, have emerged as a viable alternative for the Malays.

As for the non-Malays, you saw something pretty remarkable happen in Perak. Chinese people were waving PAS flags and chanting the name of Datuk Seri Mohd Nizar Jamaluddin, the PAS candidate. This would have been unthinkable before March 8, 2008.

No doubt, three of the four by-elections that BN has lost in since March 8 were in constituencies where it was not the incumbent. But that is scant consolation. Most political analysts and even PR people themselves would admit that the March 8 results happened because people voted against the BN rather than for PR. But nobody can say the same thing with the by-elections.

No longer can you claim people just wanted to send a message to the BN but did not actually expect nor want PR to win. In all four by-elections that PR has won since March 8, the voters knew exactly what they were voting for.

This is not an irreversible situation but it will not be easy. Najib himself indicated that he understood the enormity of the task when he said BN would no longer adopt the “instant noodle” strategy for elections.

He was referring to the well-established BN approach of announcing development projects right before an election. This is also often referred to as “development politics”, which probably sounds just a shade better than “money politics”.

The instant noodle approach also often includes feel-good policy announcements designed to win the hearts and minds of the constituents. It’s worked for about a half century but not anymore.

It’s too cynical to consider Najib’s decision to release the ISA detainees and to lift the ban on the newspapers as some kind of instant noodle tactic. The new premier asked to be judged by his actions and people should applaud him for these positive moves.

However, their timing makes them look like they were election ploys, even if they were not. For BN to win back the support of the Malays, Chinese and Indians who have deserted it, the coalition truly needs to reform.

It all starts with his choice of cabinet members, which will be announced later today. People will be looking out for this as it is the most obvious sign of whether Najib’s really serious about reforms. He needs to have a leaner and cleaner cabinet. That means people who are smart, efficient and capable. And who are not only clean but are seen to be clean.

After that, people will watch to see whether MCA, MIC and Gerakan – the other key pillars of the BN coalition – will collectively be treated more like an equal partner or will continue to play the second banana role.

It’s easy to say that these parties can’t pull their own weight in the coalition and have failed to bring in the non-Malay vote. But it’s precisely because they have had to kowtow so badly to Umno that they have been rejected by the very community they are supposed to champion and represent.

Most of all, people will be looking for the changes that Najib talked about in his Umno speech. He didn’t spell out what those changes would be but everybody knows it means no more “business as usual”.

A victory in Bukit Selambau and Bukit Gantang could have easily made him complacent. The twin defeats should remind Najib that he has his work cut out for him and that he needs to avoid the “cakap tak serupa bikin” syndrome synonymous with his predecessor.

Will Najib’s “change or be changed” comment be his famous last words? Or will change be the hallmark of the Najib administration?