The Anwar Ibrahim effect

A concise version of the following article was published in Today newspaper (Singapore) on February 26, 2008.

When people ask "Is Anwar Ibrahim a factor in the polls?" what they really mean is "Did the Malaysian government set the general elections for next month to prevent him from contesting?"

To suggest that Mr Anwar, who is barred from holding office until April, was the main factor in determining the March election date gives the opposition figure too much credit.

However, he still has some impact on Malaysian politics. The question is, just how much impact can he have on the polls?

For one, he can unite the opposition. Although the Democratic Action Party (DAP) and Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) cannot work together directly due to deep ideological differences, both can work with Mr Anwar and they generally accept him as the de facto leader of the opposition.

In addition, Mr Anwar is one of only a few opposition leaders who can go to a new constituency, where he has no established grassroots support, and defeat the incumbent from the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition. If he did so, he would also boost the chances of opposition candidates in nearby areas.

"Lim Kit Siang (the leader of the DAP) has proven that he is able to do so," said elections researcher Ong Kian Ming. "Anwar is another one who, through the sheer force of his personality and national reputation, can win new ground for the opposition."

Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, the president of the opposition Keadilan party and Mr Anwar's wife, has declared that after she defends her Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat on March 8, she will step down, forcing a by-election, which her husband would presumably win.

On this issue of Mr Anwar having a proxy, Mr Ong, a PhD candidate at Duke University, said: "There's no substitute for actually having your name on the ballot. The impact is not the same."

Aside from the possibility of Mr Anwar returning to politics in a few months, the opposition stands to gain even though he is unable to contest this election.

Mr Anwar is after all, free to go around to various hotspots, helping out the other opposition candidates — PAS in Malay areas, DAP in non-Malay areas and Keadilan in mixed areas.

His ability as a stump speaker is unmatched and he is a crowd-puller everywhere he goes.

In late December, Mr Anwar did a barnstorming tour through seven areas in Penang in just one day, then followed that with a six-stop journey through Kedah the following day.

He drew big multi-racial crowds at every stop.

He can also help the opposition with politically sensitive issues such as the pro-Malay bumiputera policy, which Mr Anwar has publicly repudiated.

If non-Malay opposition leaders, like DAP's Mr Lim, were to speak out against this policy, the ruling party, United Malays National Organisation (Umno), would immediately call him a racist.

However, if Mr Anwar were to speak out against it, the worst that Umno can do is to call him irrelevant.

Mr Anwar, who has publicly repudiated the Bumiputra policy, can effectively ask a non-Malay crowd why in the world they would want to support an Umno-led government bent on continuing an outdated policy. The Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) and the Chinese-dominated Gerakan – both parties in the BN coalition – would be hard-pressed to come up with any credible responses to that.

Critics have suggested that Mr Anwar is a non-factor because he couldn't even help his own party's candidate in a by-election in Ijok last year. But there are two things to remember about that situation.

Firstly, although the opposition lost the seat, he managed to effect a big swing in the non-Malay votes towards the opposition. Secondly, the nature of by-elections is such that it allows the BN to zoom in on that area and come in full-force in terms of machinery, money and media.

A general election is a different kettle of fish. With over 200 federal and over 500 state seats in play, it's impossible for BN to replicate an Ijok across the entire country. Mr Anwar has shown that he can draw big crowds at multiple stops in the course of a single day. Will the BN be able to keep up with that?